A few days after my article on SMS versus OTT (Over-The-Top) messaging on this blog, Portio Research published their latest Mobile Factbook. The pocket book provides a brief, start-of-2012 snapshot of the worldwide mobile industry.
In line with our own observation of the messaging market Portio concludes that SMS is not dead. Far from it: over the next five years SMS revenue is forecast to dominate worldwide messaging. Total SMS volume grows at a rate of some 4%, from 7.8 trillion in 2011 to 9.5 trillion messages in 2016.
It matches the 2016 SMS volume forecast of Informa Telecoms & Media (article).
But whereas Informa estimates Instant Messaging volume to reach 7.7 trillion messages in 2016, Portio expects we will be swyping and thumbing a mind-boggling 20 trilllion OTT messages worldwide.
This is, on average, over 4,000 SMS and OTT messages per person per year, by everyone on the planet. Optimistic? If Portio’s forecast turns out right, we might be seeing a few more cases of Repetitive Thumb Injury.
What do you think? Will Over-The-Top messaging services like WhatsApp replace SMS? Let us know by taking part in our SMS vs OTT poll.
